California Faultline

Lookout Criswell, Miss Cleo, and Carnack the Magnificent - now scientists are jumping into the prediction game:

California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast. New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent. [AP, via HuffPo]

OH MY GOD!!! 97% certainty!!!

Well, duh. Sizeable earthquakes throughout California are rather common. Even the AP article indicates this:

A 7.1 quake - much stronger than Northridge - hit the Mojave Desert in 1999 but caused only a few injuries and no deaths.

And a quick glance at the US Geological Survey’s website shows that tremblors happen every few years.

The real story would have been the odds of a trembor striking a major metropolitan area. Alas, boasting that scientists predict a 3% chance that a major quake won’t strike California probably wouldn’t make headlines - how many flashlights would that sell?

Traders on the Ireland based Intrade prediction market are investing real money on the chances of various political wins, in the US and elsewhere. Current odds include:

Democratic front-runner Barack Obama an 86 percent chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee, versus a 12.8 percent for Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady. [Reuters via Yahoo! News]

Besides Presidential elections, “stock options” include whether or not the US will boycott the Beijing Olympics, and, of special interest to California Faultine readers, if an “earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale (will) occur anywhere on/before Dec 31 2008.” (the stock is valued at 12 points, compared to the 9 point value of a Clinton White House win).

In an interview with Freakenomics, Intrade head honcho John Delaney answered the obvious legality question this way: “It’s very difficult for our legal folks to know the exact attitudes, laws, precedents etc. of every country, but they do try.” (more…)