California’s undeclared Superdelegates

Is the Clinton campaign preparing to concede the nomination to Barack Obama?

Earlier today, Bill Clinton told a crowd in Milbank, SD, “this may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind.” [MSNBC's First Read]

And Hillary Clinton is planning tomorrow’s post-primary speech in New York, a rarity according to the Associated Press. Her staffers have been invited to attend, but if they’re unable to “go home for further instructions.”

With that in mind, I thought it might be time for a quick review of the numbers, and how California plays into the scenario:

Obama is now 46 delegates short of the 2,118 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Clinton needs 202. There are 31 pledged delegates up for grabs in the Tuesday contests, and 202 superdelegates have yet to commit to either candidate. [CNN]

Thirteen of the 202 superdelegates are from California. They are:

Steve Ybarra, Art Torres, Robert Ranking, John Perez, Christine Pelosi, Bob Mulholland, Carole Midgen, Susan Davis, Bob Filner, Sam Farr, Michael Honda, Gerald McNerney, and Nancy Pelosi.

There Can Be Only One

Genius faux ad from Saturday Night Live.

With RFK assassination remarks, what Clinton was likely intending

Talking to the editorial board at the Sioux Falls Argus-Leader, Hillary Clinton defended her decision to stay in the Presidential race by saying, “”My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don’t understand it.” (NY Post)

The Obama campaign quickly decried the comments, and earlier today Clinton apologized.

However, while the comments were dumb, Clinton likely wasn’t trying to suggest she’s staying in the race because Obama risks being assassinated (or shot backstage at an NRA convention).

Instead, it appears Clinton merely fumbled the argument that further primaries could turn the tide in the campaign, such as Bobby Kennedy did against Eugene McCarthy in California in June, 1968. Just after giving a victory speech for a win that many believe cemented his nomination, Kennedy was shot and killed.

But California’s primary is no longer in January – it happened almost four months ago. So why is Clinton making the comparison now? Even if its a general statement that remaining states could give her an edge, the numbers don’t bode well: the two remaining primaries on June 3rd in Montana and Dakota have 31 delegate votes between them… even if Clinton were to win all of these, she’ll still have less than Obama.

Clinton’s comments are sloppy, if not boggling. I can’t imagine she was suggesting she needs to stay in the race just in case Obama were assassinated.

Did a Beverly Hills billionaire try to buy superdelegate votes for Clinton?

Haim Saban, the billionaire television producer of Power Rangers and other properties, supposedly offered to donate $1 million dollars to the Young Democrats of America in the same phone call where he also pushed for two uncommitted superdelegates with the group to endorse Hillary Clinton, according to the Huffington Post.

Saban has denied the claim, while HuffPo claims to have verified the story among no less than four different high ranking members of the YDA. YDA President David Hardt, whom the offer was supposedly made to, has yet to comment on the issue.

Last week, Crystal Strait, a Young Democrats of America member, made national news by announcing her support for Barack Obama as a California superdelegate, effectively tying Obama and Clinton in superdelegate counts.

Clinton in Century City on Thursday

The New York Observer reports that “Los Angeles Clinton bundler” Yashar Hedayat has emailed out a reminder for a Hillary fundraiser on Thursday night in Century City.

With six contests left, Senator Clinton needs the resources to continue competing through June 3rd.

$150 a head. VIP tickets range from $1250 – $2300, which includes a meet and great with Clinton.

A commenter snarks:

Awesome. I totally want my hard-earned money to line the pockets of the $109 million—err $98 million dollar woman as she pays herself back for a job horribly done.

Jason Burns at LA Metblogs piles by giving a news definition to American lexicon:

Hil·la·ry [hil-uh-ree] – noun

1. New York Senator currently running for President

2. A state of denial.

Example: If Britney Spears still thinks she can make a comeback, then she’s in quite a Hillary.

(To which a commenter there touches’: “As long as Hillary doesn’t show her Britney, I’m okay.”)

The nightmare ticket?

Please indulge me as I color outside of California’s borders (and possibly political sanity) and propose for discussion a possible other dream ticket for the 2008 Presidential race:

McCain/Clinton.

Sure, there are countless reasons why this wouldn’t happen, but if The Huffington Post can suggest Republican Chuck Hagel as a potential running mate for Barack Obama based largely on Hagel’s anti-war stance, I think I can suggest that a McCain/Clinton ticket stands far more a chance.

Here’s six reasons you should spread this rumor, and why it isn’t that far fetched:

6. The Obama machine isn’t slowing down, regardless of who he picks as a VP. McCain, on the other hand, needs someone to energize prospective voters and prove he won’t be “another 4 years of Bush.” There isn’t a single Republican prospect who could improve on this (save for Condi Rice).

5. McCain and Clinton aren’t shy to hide their affection for each other, and have brought up their close relationship on countless occasions.

4. They’re already attempting to create policies and a shared platform – such as the summer gas tax cut plan (that California Progress Report believes will cost our state over 23,000 jobs).

3. On more than one occasion, Hillary has said endorsed McCain’s qualifications as President while decrying Obama. In a speech on March 3rd, Clinton said, “I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime he will bring to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002.” She added that along with her, McCain had also passed the “commander in chief threshold,” but Obama had not.

2. Independent voters would go koo-koo for coconuts over a bipartisan ticket, as would anyone else feeling disenfranchised or disgusted by the partisan vitriol that has divided the country over the Iraq war.

1. The number of Clinton supporters she’s be able to carry over would far outweigh the Republican voters McCain would lose.

While it would certainly upset both party systems, I think a win would be virtually guaranteed.

Thoughts?

Undecided superdelegate says endorsement is for sale

A California Democratic superdelegate who the New York Post dubbed a “super Latino” says his choice between Clinton or Obama rests on whoever “shows him the money.” $20 million, specifically, in “an ironclad promise to spend that heady amount to register Mexican-American voters and get them to the polls in November.” [from  the Associated Press via MyWayNews]

Steven Ybarra of the DNC Hispanic Caucus also made news in February for sending a email criticizing the Clinton campaign for removing Patti Solis Doyle, a Latina, as campaign manager, saying the decision was “disloyal to Hispanics” and “dumb as a stump.” [New York Post]

At least two California superdelegates consider switching sides from Clinton to Obama

At last week’s California Democratic Council Convention, two superdelegates who had previously sworn allegiance to Hillary Clinton openly voiced reservations of continued loyalty:

Christopher Stampolis of Santa Clara, a superdelegate who endorsed Clinton after the Iowa caucuses, said that he remained in the New York senator’s camp but that his commitment expired with the end of the primaries.

“When it’s done, all of us, whether we’re committed or not, we’re going to take a look” at the final eight contests, said Stampolis, who until recently worked in external relations for a Bay Area environmental firm. “Our job is to represent the constituents who trusted us to win the White House.”

Garry Shay, a Los Angeles attorney, said that if Clinton remained about 150 pledged delegates behind Obama, the current estimated margin, he would have to “reassess the entirety of the situation.”

“It doesn’t mandate me switching,” he said, “but it does mandate me reconsidering.”

From the LA Times.

Interview with Janice Hahn, Hillary Clinton’s secret weapon

Last week I spoke with City Councilperson Janice Hahn on her winning one one of the spots as a Hillary Clinton delegate representing the 36th Congressional District. Over 200 people had shown up at the caucus to choose between 25 candidates vying for four spots – two women, one man, and an alternate

At my Obama caucus visit, numerous candidates had insisted that their convention votes wouldn’t be swayed, and seemed disturbed that anyone would try to change it. They definitely have reason for concern: Hahn unabashedly told me she cemented her win by telling caucus voters that she’d be able to persuade Obama delegates to vote for Hillary on the floor of the Democratic Convention.

I also asked Hahn why Clinton would be good for Los Angeles, and her thoughts on running for congress…

HuffPo’s Top 10 celebrity Obama and Clinton supporters…

There’s no mistaking some sort of bias on the side of the Huffington Post editorial staff over the Democratic Presidential candidates. As evidence, take a peek at their top 10 lists of celebrity supporters for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton:

Obama has Scarlett Johansson on his side. Clinton has the other Boleyn girl, Natalie Portman. Fair enough.

DeNiro has Obama’s back… Nicholson has Clinton’s… tough call on who’d win in a bar fight.

Beyond that, the matches get pretty ugly.

For power couples, Obama has “the Kennedy women” – Caroline Kennedy and Maria Shriver, vs. Clinton’s team of Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen.

And while Obama’s list had no apparent trouble being stacked with George Clooney, Samuel Jackson, and, of course, Oprah Winfrey, Clinton somehow had space to fit celebrity blogger Perez Hilton into their top 10 list.

Ouch.

Complete lists follow.